Fooled by Randomness

You can mispredict everything for all your life yet think that you will get it right next time.

My motto is "my principal activity is to tease those who take themselves and the quality of their knowledge too seriously."

It was hard to explain that the idea here was that "it is more random than we think" rather than "it is all random."

Just as one day some primitive tribesman scratched his nose, saw rain falling, and developed an elaborate method of scratching his nose to bring on the much-needed rain.

Bad information is worse than no information at all.

Nero's objective is not to maximize his profits, so much as it is to avoid having this entertaining machine called trading taken away from him.

Every time his risks increase, he conjures up the image of the quiet hallway at the university, the long mornings at his desk spent in revising a paper, kept awake by bad coffee.

Future causes the markets to shut down.